Muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2020, kutengwa kwecobalt kwakazara matani 16,800 esimbi, kuderera kwegore negore kwe19%.Pakati pavo, iyo yose inotengeswa yecobalt ore yaiva 0.01 mamiriyoni ematare ematare, 92% gore negore kuderera;iyo yose yekutengeswa kwecobalt wet kunyungudutsa zvigadzirwa zvepakati zvaive 15,800 matani, gore negore kuderera kwe15%;iyo yakazara kupinza cobalt isina kugadzirwa yaive 0.08 miriyoni matani esimbi, Kuwedzera kwe57% gore negore.

Shanduko mumutengo weSMM cobalt zvigadzirwa kubva Chivabvu 8 kusvika Chikunguru 31, 2020

Data kubva kuSMM

Mushure mepakati paChikumi, reshiyo ye electrolytic cobalt kune cobalt sulfate zvishoma nezvishoma yakarerekera ku 1, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekudzoreredza zvishoma nezvishoma kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvebhatiri.

SMM cobalt chigadzirwa mutengo kuenzanisa kubva Chivabvu 8 kusvika Chikunguru 31st, 2020

Data kubva kuSMM

Izvo chete zvinhu zvakatsigira kukwira kwemitengo kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Chikumi gore rino kuvharwa kwechiteshi cheSouth Africa muna Kubvumbi, uye midziyo yemumba yecobalt yaive yakasimba kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Chikumi.Nekudaro, izvo zvakakosha zvezvigadzirwa zvakanyungudutswa mumusika wepamba zvichiri kuwanda, uye cobalt sulfate yatanga kudzikisira mwedzi iwoyo, uye zvakakosha zvave nani.Iko kudiwa kwepasi hakuna kuvandudza zvakanyanya, uye kudiwa kwe3C digitaalinen yemagetsi yapinda mumwaka wekunze wekutenga, uye kuwedzera kwemutengo kwave kudiki.

Kubva pakati paChikunguru gore rino, zvinhu zvinotsigira kukwira kwemitengo zvakawedzera:

1. Cobalt raw material supply kupera:

Denda idzva rekorona muAfrica rakakomba, uye nyaya dzakasimbiswa munzvimbo dzemigodhi dzakaonekwa mushure meimwe.Kugadzirwa hakuna kukanganiswa panguva ino.Kunyangwe kudzivirira denda uye kutonga munzvimbo dzemigodhi kwakasimba uye mukana wekupararira kwakakura kuri kudiki, musika uchiri kunetseka.

Parizvino, chiteshi chengarava cheSouth Africa chine simba guru.South Africa pari zvino ndiyo nyika iri kunyanya kubatwa nechirwere ichi muAfrica.Huwandu hwenyaya dzakasimbiswa dzakapfuura mazana mana nemakumi masere ezviuru, uye huwandu hwekuongororwa hutsva hwakawedzera negumi, 000 pazuva.Zvinonzwisiswa kuti kubva South Africa yakasimudza embargo muna Chivabvu 1, chiteshi chengarava chanonoka kupora, uye hurongwa hwekutanga hwekutakura hwakatumirwa pakati paMay;chiteshi chengarava kubva munaChikumi kusvika Chikunguru chaingova 50-60% yezvakajairika;maererano nemhinduro kubva kune cobalt raw material suppliers , Pamusana pematanho avo anokosha ekufambisa, purogiramu yekutumira yevatengesi vemazuva ano yakafanana neyenguva yapfuura, asi hapana chiratidzo chekuvandudza.Zvinotarisirwa kuti mamiriro acho achaenderera mberi mukati memwedzi miviri kana mitatu inotevera;Vamwe vatengesi' nguva pfupi yadarika chirongwa chekutumira chaNyamavhuvhu chadzikira, uye zvimwe zvinhu necobalt Raw materials zvinotora hushoma hwezviteshi zveSouth Africa.

Muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2020, kutengwa kwecobalt kwakazara matani 16,800 esimbi, kuderera kwegore negore kwe19%.Pakati pavo, iyo yose inotengeswa yecobalt ore yaiva 0.01 mamiriyoni ematare ematare, 92% gore negore kuderera;iyo yose yekutengeswa kwecobalt wet kunyungudutsa zvigadzirwa zvepakati zvaive 15,800 matani, gore negore kuderera kwe15%;kutengwa kwecobalt isina kugadzirwa yaive 0.08 miriyoni matani esimbi.Kuwedzera kwe57% gore negore.

China cobalt raw material inopinza kubva muna Ndira 2019 kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 2020

Data kubva kuSMM&Chinese Tsika

Hurumende yeAfrica nemaindasitiri vachagadzirisa matombo evadzivisi avo.Maererano nenhau dzemusika, kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu gore rino, ichadzora zvizere nekudzora ore yekubvuta.Iyo nguva yekugadzirisa inogona kukanganisa kutengeswa kwezvimwe zvinhu zvecobalt munguva pfupi, zvichitungamira mukupihwa kwakasimba.Zvisinei, kugoverwa kwegore negore kwe ore nemaoko, maererano nehuwandu husina kukwana, inosvika 6% -10% yehuwandu hwepasi rose hwepasi rose hwe cobalt raw materials, iyo ine zvishoma.

Naizvozvo, mudzimba cobalt mbishi zvinhu zvinoramba zvakasimba, uye zvichaenderera mberi kwemwedzi 2-3 mune ramangwana.Zvinoenderana neongororo uye kufunga, iyo yepamba cobalt yakagadziridzwa zvinhu ingangoita 9,000-11,000 matani ematani esimbi, uye mudzimba cobalt mbishi kushandiswa kungangoita mwedzi 1-1.5, uye yakajairwa cobalt mbishi zvinhu inochengeta 2- Kurume hesitori.Denda iri rawedzerawo mitengo yakavanzika yemakambani emigodhi, zvichiita kuti vatengesi vecobalt vazeze kutengesa, nemaodha mashoma, uye mitengo ichikwira.

2. Divi rekupa chigadzirwa chakanyungudika:

Tichitora cobalt sulfate semuenzaniso, cobalt sulfate yekuChina yasvika pachiyero pakati pekupa uye kudiwa muna Chikunguru, uye yemusika yakaderera cobalt sulfate inventory yakatsigira kukwidziridzwa kwepamusoro kwevatengesi vecobalt sulfate.

Kubva munaChikunguru 2018 kusvika Chikunguru 2020 E China Cobalt Sulfate Cumulative Balance

Data kubva kuSMM

3. Terminal inoda divi

3C dhijitari terminal yakapinda pamusoro pekutenga uye stocking muhafu yechipiri yegore.Kune kumusoro kwecobalt munyu zvidyarwa uye vagadziri vecobalt tetroxide, kudiwa kunoramba kuchiwedzera.Nekudaro, zvinonzwisiswa kuti kuverengera kwecobalt mbishi zvinhu mumafekitori makuru ekudzika kwebhatiri angangoita 1500-2000 matani esimbi, uye kuchine cobalt zvigadzirwa zvinopinda pachiteshi zvakatevedzana mwedzi wega wega.Iyo mbishi yezvinyorwa zvevagadziri velithium cobalt oxide uye mafekitori ebhatiri akakwira kupfuura iyo yekumusoro kwecobalt munyu uye cobalt tetroxide.Tarisiro, hongu, pane zvakare kunetseka kudiki nezvekuuya kunotevera kwecobalt mbishi zvinhu kuHong Kong.

Kudiwa kweternary kuri kutanga kukwira, uye zvinotarisirwa zviri kuvandudzwa muhafu yechipiri yegore.Tichifunga kuti kutengwa kwezvinhu zveternary nemagetsi mabhatiri zvirimwa ndezvenguva refu, mabhatiri ezvino zvidyarwa uye ternary zvinhu zvidyarwa zvichiri mudura, uye hapasati pasisina kuwedzera kwakakosha kwekutenga kudiwa kwezvinhu zvinokwira kumusoro.Maodha ekudzika ari kupora zvishoma nezvishoma, uye chiyero chekukura kwechido chakaderera pane chepamusoro pemitengo yezvigadzirwa, saka mitengo ichiri yakaoma kuendesa.

4. Macro capital inflow, kutenga uye kuchengetedza catalysis

Nguva pfupi yadarika, maonero ehupfumi epamba aramba achivandudza, uye kuwanda kwemari kwakakonzera kuwedzera kukuru kwemusika kudiwa kwe electrolytic cobalt.Nekudaro, iyo chaiyo yekupedzisira kushandiswa kweyepamusoro-tembiricha alloys, magineti zvinhu, makemikari uye mamwe maindasitiri anoratidza hapana zviratidzo zvekuvandudza.Pamusoro pezvo, runyerekupe rwemusika rwekuti kutengwa uye kuchengetwa kwe electrolytic cobalt kwakakonzerawo kuwedzera kwemitengo yecobalt kutenderera uku, asi nhau dzekutenga nekuchengetedza hadzisati dzasvika, izvo zvinotarisirwa kuve nemhedzisiro shoma pamusika.

Muchidimbu, nekuda kwekukanganisa kwedenda idzva rekorona muna 2020, zvese zvinopihwa uye zvinodiwa zvichave zvisina simba.Izvo zvakakosha zvepasi rose cobalt oversupply zvinoramba zvisina kuchinjika, asi kupa uye kudiwa mamiriro anogona kuvandudza zvakanyanya.Kupihwa kwepasirese uye kudiwa kwecobalt zvigadzirwa zvinotarisirwa kuenzanisa zviuru gumi nezvinomwe zvematani esimbi.

Kudivi rekupa, mugodhi weGlencore weMutanda cobalt wakavharwa.Mamwe mapurojekiti matsva ecobalt akarongerwa kutanga kushanda gore rino anogona kuendeswa kune gore rinouya.Kupihwa kwesimbi inobatwa nemaoko kuchadzikira zvakare munguva pfupi.Naizvozvo, SMM inoramba ichidzikisa fungidziro yayo yecobalt mbishi yegore rino.155,000 matani esimbi, gore-pa-gore kuderera kwe6%.Padivi rekuda, SMM yakadzikisa fungidziro yekugadzirwa kwemotokari nyowani dzesimba, dhijitari uye kuchengetedza simba, uye iyo yakazara yepasi rose cobalt kudiwa kwakaderedzwa kusvika 138,000 matani esimbi.

2018-2020 yepasi rose cobalt kupa uye kudiwa chiyero

Data kubva kuSMM

Kunyangwe kudiwa kwe5G, hofisi yepamhepo, zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi zvinopfekwa, nezvimwe zvawedzera, kudiwa kwelithium cobalt oxide uye kukwira kwerukova zvekushandisa kwawedzera, asi kugadzirwa nekutengesa kwematerminals enharembozha ane chikamu chepamusoro chemusika chakakanganiswa nedenda iri. inotarisirwa kuramba ichidzikira, ichinyungudutsa chikamu chekukanganisa palithium cobalt oxide uye kumusoro kwerwizi Kuwedzera kudiwa kwecobalt mbishi zvinhu.Naizvozvo, hazvitaurwi kuti mutengo wekukwira kumusoro kwemvura unowedzera zvakanyanya, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kunonoka muzvirongwa zvekudzika masheya.Nokudaro, kubva pamaonero ekupa cobalt uye kudiwa, kuwedzera kwemutengo wecobalt muhafu yechipiri yegore kune zvishoma, uye mutengo we electrolytic cobalt unogona kuchinja pakati pe23-32 mamiriyoni yuan/ton.